It's finally time to stop talking about the Fiesta Bowl and start watching it. Everyone's picking the Longhorns to win this one comfortably, but everyone's wrong from time to time. Will they be wrong this time? Will Pryor play like a freshman or a veteran? Will we get one last great performance from Jenkins and Laurinaitis and company? Is this the last time we'll see Beanie in a Buckeye uniform? Can the Buckeyes shake their reputation for choking in big games? We'll find out soon.

Enjoy the game everyone, and Go Bucks!

So, the big game is almost here. If you ask most people, they'll tell you they shouldn't even bother playing this one. Just give the victory to Texas and spare the Buckeyes another embarassment. The game is still going to be played, though, and a Buckeye victory wouldn't be the strangest thing to happen in college football. In fact, it would be the continuation of a trend. The last time the Buckeyes were expected to get crushed in a Fiesta Bowl, things went well. So let's take a look at this year's version of the game.

Ohio State Defense vs. Texas Offense
What does Texas do well? Um, everything? 35th in rushing offense, 10th in passing offense, 2nd in pass efficiency, 9th in total offense, 4th in scoring offense. You can point out that these numbers came against the defense-deficient Big 12, but still, that's pretty good. Colt McCoy is the leading rusher at just 48 yards per game, but the ground game as a whole gets the job done. They don't exactly have to carry a lot of weight with the Texas passing game. They get a shade under 300 yards a game through the air, and McCoy doesn't make many mistakes, throwing for 32 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions. Slot receiver extraordinaire Jordan Shipley is the leading target at 81.83 yards per game, but Quan Cosby is just behind him at at 79.33 yards per game.

How can the Buckeyes stop the Longhorns? That's the big question, isn't it? Nobody's really stopped this offense. A start would be pressuring McCoy. The Longhorns do only an average job of protecting McCoy, giving up 1.83 sacks per game, 57th in the country. You might think that's because they pass so much, but they've only attempted 389 passes, well behind the Texas Techs (662 attempts) and Houstons (610) of the world.

They also need to stop the run. That doesn't seem to fit with the image of Texas having a high-powered aerial attack, but Texas has rushed 479 times and passed 389 times this season. Some of that's certainly because Texas has played with a lead so much this season, but I think it also represents that they don't neglect the  ground game. Woody Hayes used to focus on stopping the best part of an opponent's offense, saying "make them beat us left-handed." I don't think you can stop Texas's passing game entirely, so this is more a case of "don't let them beat us with both hands."

One thing the Buckeyes can do that few other teams can is cover Jordan Shipley with a quality corner. Donald Washington would be a starter were it not for his season-starting suspension, and if the coaches are smart, they'll put him on Shipley, not Jermale Hines or (please please please not) Anderson Russell. Washington is good enough to contain, if not stop, Shipley. Slowing down one of Texas's primary weapons would go a long way toward stopping their offense.

Ohio State Offense vs. Texas Defense
What does Texas do well? Stop the run. They're second in the country in rush defense, giving up 73.58 yards per game. Big 12 teams love to pass, true, but that's impressive. Texas also does a great job getting to the quarterback. They get 3.67 sacks per game, tops in the country. Since the Bucks are 82nd in the country in sacks allowed, that's cause for concern.

How can the Buckeyes attack the Texas defense? Well, they're certainly going to test that rush defense. This Texas defense hasn't seen a running back like Beanie. It's not inconcievable to think that the Buckeyes can succeed where others have failed against this defense and move the ball on this defense.

But it also looks like this defense can be had through the air. They're 108th in pass defense, giving up 266.33 yards per game. They're also 60th in pass efficiency defense. Two factors mitigate that: opponents are usually passing to try and catch up, and they play in the Big 12, where everyone throws a lot. Still, those aren't good numbers. We won't see the Buckeyes slinging the ball all over the field, but it's likely that they'll try to catch what looks to be a vulnerable secondary in a mistake from time to time (the rumored plan of having Boeckman and Pryor on the field at the same time may be part of that). The important thing will be to get the ball out of Pryor's hands quickly. Texas DE Brian Orakpo, as the sack numbers above indicate, is not just a product of hype, and against OSU's rather lackluster o-line, could have a field day. On the other hand, Pryor's mobility could help slow down the Texas pass rush.

Prediction? Pain. Always, pain. Dunno for who, but for someone. Hopefully not us.

If you weren't paying attention, the Buckeyes kind of got blown out of the water Saturday, losing 76-48 to West Virginia. This looked to me like the first game where the Buckeyes couldn't make up for the loss of David Lighty. My theory is that since he went out, the team has played good enough defense to avoid getting burned on that end of the court, and they've picked up the slack on the offensive end. Saturday, however, they couldn't hit the broad side of the Schott, shooting 31% overall and a miserable 52.6% on free throws. Meanwhile, Lighty's absence was finally felt on the defensive end, as West Virginia scored virtually at will in the second half. Lighty wouldn't have been the difference between a victory and defeat, not the way the Buckeyes were shooting, but he probably would have made the defensive performance closer to respectable. As it was, the Buckeyes averaged .77 points per possession, while the Mountaineers averaged 1.18 PPP. Evan Turner scored ten points and chipped in 11 rebounds, but got his points on 4 of 17 shooting. William Buford contributed 11 points on more respectable 4 of 11 shooting, and Jeremie Simmons had probably the best game, offensively, with 11 points on 4 of 7 shooting.

After the game, it came to light that Anthony Crater is transferring. The story from Crater's people is that he was promised the starting job after Mike Conley left. Seeing as Simmons is starting, that clearly didn't happen. However, nothing in Crater's performance thus far (as 11W has noted) has given anyone reason to think he should get more playing time. He's shooting 20% on the season, and he's averaging just under two assists per game, with an assist-to-turnover ration just north of 2:1. Simmons, meanwhile, is lighting it up (only) by comparison, shooting 32.8% (and, curiously, 34.9% on this threes) while averaging slightly more assists and a similar A/TO ratio. So while Crater holds a slight edge in passing, Simmons holds a significant edge in scoring. With Turner the only reliable scoring option, this team needs points, not passing, and Simmons was the logical choice. It's disappointing that Crater wasn't more patient. Who knows what would have happened in the second half of this season, let alone next season? Crater had to do what he felt was best for himself, though. Hopefully it works out for him.

As for the Buckeyes, this is a significant hit to their backcourt depth. P.J. Hill will see quite a bit more playing time, and Turner will probably handle the ball a lot more. With luck, that won't significantly increase his turnovers, but I'm not counting on it. In terms of recruiting, this opens up a scholarship that the coaches didn't expect to have. I'm not sure if they'll be able to get a point guard of note in this year's class or not; honestly, I just wrote off basketball recruiting this year, since there was no space on the roster. Now there is, and it doesn't really look like there are any quality uncommitted point guards out there, but I'm not certain. Anyone have any insight to share?

Sorry, work, etc. Anyway, the ballot!

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Florida	3
2	Texas	--
3	Oklahoma	--
4	Alabama	3
5	Southern Cal	--
6	Utah	--
7	Texas Tech	--
8	Penn State	--
9	Ohio State	--
10	Boise State	--
11	TCU	--
12	Cincinnati	1
13	Georgia Tech	2
14	Oklahoma State	--
15	Brigham Young	1
16	Boston College	1
17	Georgia	1
18	Michigan State	2
19	Oregon	--
20	Northwestern	2
21	Virginia Tech	3
22	Pittsburgh	1
23	Missouri	2
24	Iowa	2
25	Ball State	13

Dropped Out: Florida State (#25).

By Way of Explanation

Not too much, because not too much happened. I moved Florida to the top, because while theirs was a bad loss, they've pretty much annihilated some pretty solid competition since then, and they beat the team I've had number one for a while now. Besides, if I moved Texas to number one, it might look a bit like I was putting them there just because they're playing the Buckeyes.

As for why I have Texas above Oklahoma, it's simple: they beat them.

Okay, so I admit, Oklahoma's continued dominance has been impressive. And they destroyed the team that beat Texas. But the simplicity of the argument appeals to me: Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field; therefore, Texas should be ranked above Oklahoma. I can understand the arguments about Oklahoma's strength of schedule and whatnot, but when so little separates two teams, shouldn't head to head results carry the most weight?

Other than that, minor movement for the most part. Missouri lost, sure, but it wasn't surprising, and I think that any other team in that part of the poll would have suffered the same fate. I never really thought Ball State was a top-20 team, but they kept winning, and it was hard to say no. Now they've lost, and I feel like they're ranked about accurately.

If you have any thoughts, get them in overnight, I'll take a last look at my ballot first thing in the morning. As always, comments are encouraged, as are hilarious insults.

It's tough to get in the mood for basketball, what with the football team still working on sneaking into the BCS, but I've managed. The Buckeyes have played three games so far, crushing Delaware State and Samford, and nearly blowing a game to Bowling Green in between the two blowouts. Now, you shouldn't draw conclusions about a team based on competition like this, but my pappy always told me not to take my own advice, so here are a few conclusions:

1. Evan Turner is the most important player on this team.
On any given night, the guy may or may not be the best player on the team. B.J. Mullens may have more raw talent, Jon Diebler may be a better shooter, Anthony Crater a better passer, and David Lighty a better defender, but that's what makes Turner so important. He's not just a shooter, or a distributor, or a defender. He's all of that and more. When he plays well, he's all over the stat sheet, like against Samford, when he led the team in attempts, points, rebounds, assists, and steals. However, he also led the team in turnovers; that problem hasn't gone away. So long as his assist/turnover ratio is north of 1.0, that's not a major problem. But imagine if Turner could eliminate those turnovers. He rebounds well, he sees the floor well, he can score in a variety of ways - he'd be mini-LeBron.

2. David Lighty will never be better than an average offensive player, and we need to make our peace with that.
Chris mentioned this a few days ago and I think he nailed it. Lighty is a good defender, aware and athletic enough to man the middle of the zone and coordinate everything despite being just 6'5". However, against the lackluster competition the Buckeyes have faced thus far, Lighty's averaged just 1.0 PPWS, a pretty mediocre number. I give Lighty credit for usually knowing what to do, and on defense that's usually enough. If a guy knows where he should be, especially when playing zone defense, he can be a good defender. But on offense, knowing what shot to take is only half the battle, and for whatever reason Lighty just can't get his shot to consistently fall. That's not really a big problem for me. Lighty's a good enough shooter that he can't just be ignored on offense, and his defense and leadership are more important to a team that should (eventually, hopefully) find scoring from Turner, Jeremie Simmons, and Jon Diebler. Speaking of Diebler. . .

3. I'm knocking on wood here, but Diebler seems to have found his shot again.
Diebler looks much more comfortable on the court this season. He's been the team's most efficient scorer (1.4 PPWS) and second-leading scorer. Bowling Green was his best game as a Buckeye. He not only shot reasonably well from behind the arc (3 of 7), he deployed an effective shot fake, got to the basket, and took a mid-range jumper or two. He's still primarily a three-point specialist, and he can occasionally spend too much time loitering in three-point range, but the guy's making 43.8% of his threes, so how critical can you be? If he can keep that percentage north of forty, he'll have a good year.

4. Dallas Lauderdale is the most fun-to-watch Buckeye on the defensive end since. . . well, Greg Oden. But still.
Oden was entertaining to watch not just because of the blocks, but because of the shots that were never taken because he was there. A guard would beat his man and prepare for a layup, only to look up and see a forty-year-old giant staring down at him. Said guard would then meekly dribble out to three point range.

Lauderdale isn't affecting shot selection solely on his reputation yet, but he'll get there. He's averaging 5.3 blocks per game, good for second in the country. He's got great timing and a scary wingspan. That block total is going to drop off, but as he gets more comfortable and experienced, he's going to get even better on the defensive end, and that should be scary for opponents.

Here it is, the most important game of the year. Nothing would be better than a victory, nothing would be worse than a loss. It's like Christmas, but with the ever present possibility of someone taking your presents and kicking you in the shin.

The Buckeyes are playing for a share of the Big Ten Championship and a possible BCS bid, but for the next few hours, who cares? It's all about beating Michigan.

Now, some recent(-ish, in the case of the first video) history.

Courtesy of Buckeye Commentary.

Courtesy of Jeff.

Enjoy the game everyone, and GO BUCKS!

Okay, they're 3-8. Okay, none of the players on their roster have beaten Ohio State. And okay, a Michigan win Saturday would be the biggest upset in the history of the rivalry. None of that means it's impossible. Anything can happen. Just ask Toledo or Appalachian State. While this season is a failure for Michigan by just about any standard, if you check out the stats, there has to be something the Wolverines do well, right?

Right?

Well, there's punting. Zoltan Mesko is one of the best punters in the country, and the Wolverines are second in the nation in net punting at 41.37 yards. It's a good thing they have such a good punter, because they do a lot of it. Nobody has more total punting yards than the Wolverines. I guess you could say that Mesko is sort of the Graham Harrell of punting. Sure, he's better at it than just about anyone else, but considering how much practice he gets at it, he oughta be.

Other than that, it's slim pickings in terms of things the Wolverines do well. Seriously, take a look at their stats. They're pretty good at getting to the quarterback (34th nationally in sacks at 2.36/game) and bringing guys down behind the line of scrimmage (36th, 6.27 TFL/game). That indicates that the defensive line is pretty decent, in particular DE Brandon Graham, who's tied for 9th in sacks and 2nd in tackles for loss. Other than that, they're a bit below average on a national scale, which means they're much worse than what we've come to expect from Michigan. They're 60th in rushing and 106th in passing (though the Buckeyes are 107th, so yeah). The defense is similar: 45th against the run, 89th against the pass. They're 105th in turnover margin, due in large part to an impressive ability to fumble the ball.

What I'm getting at is that there's no reason to fear this team. Graham is very good, Mesko can bail them out from time to time, and the running backs have shown flashes of competency, but if I gave you these stats and said, "Here's Indiana's stats; the Buckeyes are playing them this weekend," you'd tell me that the Buckeyes should roll, no problem. The Wolverines are a sub-par team with bad luck, and that's not a good combination.

Yet, I do worry about Saturday's game. It's probably because my formative years as a Buckeye fan came during the Cooper years, when the Buckeyes would lose again and again to Michigan teams they should have beaten. I'm still growing accustomed to the idea that the Buckeyes can consistently beat the Wolverines. I'm enjoying it, but there are still some deep-seated issues that the Tressel years are having to work through. Beyond my own psychological issues, there are two main reasons why I'm not chalking this one up as an automatic win:

1. Rich Rodriguez - We hate him, West Virginia hates him, a small but vocal (and overly excitable, if not out-and-out dumb) portion of the Michigan fanbase hates him. He can coach, though. He's showed that time and time again. How will he handle the game? Beauford at Maize n Brew doesn't buy into the concept of "getting" the rivalry, but I do. It's not so simple as "getting it = winning it," but I think the Cooper years, especially when contrasted with the Tressel years, have shown us that treating the OSU-Michigan game as just another game is a mistake. I'm not suggesting that that's what Rodriguez is doing; I mean to say that Rodriguez can't truly understand the rivalry until he's lived it. Intellectually, he can obviously grasp that it's important to everyone, but I don't think you can grok something like this without experiencing it firsthand. Will his lack of experience be the drawback a lot of Buckeye fans seem to think it will be, or will his coaching ability be more important?

2. The Michigan players - This is their last game of the season. This is their bowl game. A win provides a bit of momentum going into the offseason, while a loss is yet another defeat to their biggest rival. You think they won't be motivated? The Buckeyes will also be gunning for a win, of course, but they'll also have people telling them all week how they should just run over the Wolverines. The coaching staff has had some trouble keeping the Buckeyes focused this season; that shouldn't be a problem against the Wolverines, but if for some reason it is, the Wolverines could make up a significant chunk of the talent and experience gap on intensity and focus alone.

That said, this is probably the best I've felt about a Michigan game in recent memory. I'm still concerned, because I'm always concerned, but while my usual concern is of the visceral and immediate "Can the Buckeyes win? Will the Buckeyes win?" sort, now I have time for more philosophical concern, like "Can the Buckeyes possibly beat Michigan by enough to put out the fires of hatred that burn in my heart?"

Incidentally, I've decided that the answer to that last question is "No, no they cannot." Any win against Michigan is pretty much as good as any other win against Michigan, in that they all provide satisfaction that manages to be both immense and yet entirely insufficient to quench my thirst for victory over Michigan.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas Tech	--
2	Alabama	--
3	Texas	--
4	Florida	1
5	Oklahoma	1
6	Southern Cal	--
7	Penn State	--
8	Utah	--
9	Boise State	--
10	Ohio State	--
11	Oklahoma State	--
12	Missouri	--
13	Georgia	--
14	Ball State	--
15	Michigan State	--
16	Brigham Young	1
17	TCU	1
18	Cincinnati	3
19	Pittsburgh	3
20	LSU	--
21	Oregon State	4
22	Miami (Florida)	4
23	Oregon	3
24	Maryland	2
25	North Carolina	7

Dropped Out: Florida State (#19), Tulsa (#23), South Carolina (#24).

Nothing too exciting going on here. I gave in a little bit to the "Hey, Florida's crushing everyone" school of thought, but I'm trying my hardest to not forget about the fact that they loss to Ole Freakin' Miss. That's the only movement in the top 15, and let's be honest, everything else is such a crapshoot that it doesn't really matter. If you have some suggestions, let me hear them in the next four hours, I'll take one last look at things before work.

We'll have some thoughts on the Illinois game up here soon enough, but I just wanted to remind everyone that it's now Michigan week. The game is on, though for a while there, it was looking like the Michigan football team wouldn't be able to make it to Columbus. Why? They couldn't get past Toledo.

*ba dum ching*

First, click play for a microcosm of the Ohio State run game:

The team predictably runs on first down. Beanie runs into two o-linemen "run blocking" on the wrong side of the line of scrimmage. The only help he receives from the line is a shove forward by Alex Boone. Beanie breaks free and scores anyway, delivering a little Infinite Justice along the way.

I believe that a great running back can make a mediocre offensive line look good, but that's not what's happening here. This is like putting a Ferrari in a showroom full of AMC Pacers. This is something extraordinary looking even more so because of what surrounds it. You gotta admire the effort Beanie shows, and the results he gets even when teams load up to stop the run and the offensive line gets no push.

The bullet points!

• While we're YouTubing, this is why Terrelle Pryor is starting for the Buckeyes:
  I don't know who you are, MB721, but you are my hero.
  
  Jim Cordle whiffs on a block (or perhaps more accurately, picks the wrong guy to block), and a d-lineman gets into the backfield virtually untouched. Boeckman probably would have been hit from behind. Pryor, however, is fast enough to escape and make a play. Ex-players might see it as a problem, but the change at quarterback was less an indictment of Boeckman and more an indictment of the offensive line. When guys are able to get into the backfield at will, having a quarterback who can get out of the pocket quickly is almost a necessity.
• I can't decide if I think Tressel should let Pryor throw more or not. On the one hand, it's tough to argue with Saturday's results: 9 of 14 for 197 yards and 3 TDs. Pryor did enough to get an easy win and didn't make many mistakes. On the other hand, if he was that good with just 14 attempts, why not give him 25? Why not throw more on first down? It certainly seems to make more sense than running into eight-man fronts, the current hallmark of the offensive gameplan. I'm sure Tressel's response to that would be that he's trying to minimize the opportunity for Pryor to make mistakes, which makes some sense, especially given how hard Pryor took his two mistakes against Penn State. But you can't take a talent like Pryor and put him into an offensive gameplan that looks to minimize risk first and foremost. You have to accept that his unwillingness to give up on plays and his confidence in his athletic ability will occasionally result in mistakes, because those are precisely the traits that make him special. Turn him loose, accept the mistakes, see what happens. It should open things up for the running game, and make the entire offense much more dangerous.
• A thought: I'm not sure, but I assume the Buckeyes had the second-team offensive line in at the end of the game. And sure, they were probably going up against Northwestern's second-teamers. But those guys made Mo Wells look good and sprang Boom Herron for a touchdown that brought a frown to Jim Tressel's face (more on that in a bit). Maybe they deserve a bit more playing time? The starters haven't been inspiring, let's see what the backups can do in more meaningful minutes.
• Another solid game for the defense. The first couple drives were cause for concern, what with Mike "Insert Eastern-European Literature Joke Here" Kafka having success running the ball despite everyone in the Western Hemisphere realizing he was going to run the ball. The defense settle down and adjusted though, and Kafka was pretty well shut down after that. Sure, Kafka's success will make us all that much more worried about Juice Williams next week, but be honest: you already expected Juice to turn in his best game of the season, didn't you?
  
  But back to the defense. The line has really come around. They're doing a much better job of getting pressure on the quarterback. Nathan Williams is playing the role of "Surprisingly Good Freshman Defensive End," previously played by Cam Heyward. Williams isn't the most polished player, but the dude never stops working. He and Thaddeus Gibson bring a ton of energy to the d-line, and it seems to be rubbing off on everyone else on the d-line. Combine that with the continued quality play of the back seven, and this defense is formidable again. We'll have to see how they handle Illinois, the conference leader in total offense.
• Do you think Tressel was running up the score at the end, as Andre Ware claimed? I don't think it was intentional, though the fake punt wasn't the classiest move out there. A few times over the years, I've gotten the feeling that the analytical coaching part of Tressel's brain has taken control at unnecessary times, and I think that's what happened with the fake. He saw the wind and the field position and figured a punt wouldn't be worth much, so why not go for it? Worst case, you cost yourself ten or twenty yards that you would have gained on the punt, but you might get a first down, and you avoid big play potential on the punt return. The fake is the smart call there, but a smart call wasn't necessary. The punt would have been the polite, classier thing to do, and I'd expect Tressel to realize that, but like I said, occasionally he gets in analytical coach mode, and nothing crosses his mind but calling the best play he can come up with for the situation.
  
  As for Herron's touchdown run, I don't think the team has anything to apologize for there. That wasn't the starters out slinging the ball all over the field, it was the backups running the ball between the tackles. Sure, there's nothing wrong with taking a knee there, but what's so bad about getting the backups some real plays during a game? I mean, come on: we're talking dive plays by the second-team offense. What part of that says "running up the score" to you? Is it the extremely basic running play, or the benchwarmers running it? I think Tressel's expression after the touchdown said it all: he was just trying to get the second team a few semi-meaningful snaps, and they just performed a bit too well.
• Preliminary thoughts about the Illinois game: they do a good job of pressuring the quarterback, and that worries me, but their run defense is sub-par, which is good news. Juice Williams hasn't quite taken the step forward that he was expected to this season, which means he will be great against the Buckeyes. Rejus Benn versus Malcolm Jenkins is an NFL-caliber matchup, and should be fun to watch.